2025 Grammy Predictions: Will It Be Beyonce’s Night?
Well, it’s Grammy season, better known on social media as Let’s Talk About How Trophies Mean Nothing While Also Complaining About Our Faves Getting Snubbed season.
Y’all make everything exhausting.
Nominations were made official a few days ago, so I thought I’d do a lil’ Ms. Cleo cosplay and share my thoughts on the possible big winners in hip-hop and R&B categories, along with the big three awards too.
As always, I’ll share who SHOULD win each award – simply put, the best song or project nominated, without bias – along with whom I think WILL win, which factors in all the hype, politics, fence-mending and other nonsense that come with these awards every year.
Check out my thoughts and come back in a couple months to laugh about how wrong I was.
Record of the Year
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Charli XCX, “360”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
What should win: “Espresso”
What will win: “Birds of a Feather”
Just to clear up the confusion these categories create every year, think of it like this: Record of the Year is about the recording of a song, Song of the Year is about the songwriting. I’ve made my love of Sabrina Carpenter very clear over the past year – her blend of Pop-n-b feels straight out of the 2000s and “Espresso” is vibrant addition to the current dreary production landscape. It’s THE bop of bops. But I think they’ll save her win for pop categories. I think Bille takes this one, and honestly, it’s just as deserved.
Song of the Year
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Taylor Swift, “Fortnight” featuring Post Malone
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
What should win: “Birds of a Feather”
What will win: “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Every year, the Grammys has a running narrative, and I expect the big story of 2025 to be the Beyonce Apology Tour, especially in the wake of Black Twitter’s near riot when her Renaissance album was “snubbed.”
(Edditor’s Note: it shouldn’t have won Best Album anyway)
“Birds of a Feather” is the strongest entry here, but we’re getting The Beyonce Show, with “Texas Hold ‘Em” getting the little gold gramophone. It’s not a bad choice, but I think “16 Carriages” would have been the superior nomination.
Best Rap Album
Common & Pete Rock, The Auditorium Vol. 1
Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You
J. Cole, Might Delete Later
What should win: Alligator Bites Never Heal
What will win: Alligator Bites Never Heal
This year’s nominees are … OK. Common, Doechii and Em are all deserving. Future & Metro and Cole feel like they’re only here due to their role in Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 reign of terror. They’re not disasters but there are easily a dozen or more superior projects.
If we put politics aside and select the best top-to-bottom project nominated, I’m giving it to Doechii, with Com and Pete slightly behind. After Killer Mike’s win last year and Kendrick the year before, it seems like the academy is FINALLY willing to award quality over hype and buzz, so I’ll predict a Doechii upset.
Best Rap Performance
Cardi B, “Enough (Miami)”
Common & Pete Rock Featuring Posdnuos, “When the Sun Shines Again”
Doechii, “Nissan Altima”
Eminem, “Houdini”
Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Glorilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
What should win: “Not Like Us”
What will win: “Not Like Us”
No brainer. “Not Like Us” was THE song of the moment. I seriously doubt a song that had people dancing to pedophilia accusations will be named Song of the Year, but Best Rap Performance seems like an appropriate consolation prize.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
Jordan Adetunji Featuring Kehlani, “Kehlani”
Beyoncé Featuring Linda Martell & Shaboozey, “Spaghettii”
Future & Metro Boomin Featuring The Weeknd, “We Still Don’t Trust You”
Latto, “Big Mama”
Rapsody Featuring Erykah Badu, “3 A.M.”
What should win: “3 A.M.”
What will win: “Spaghettii”
The name “Melodic Rap” will never fail to make me chuckle. They make it sound like the Ja Rule Memorial Rap Award. Except he’s still alive. I guess.
Anyway, Rapsody by far is the best song here but, per Beyonce Apology Tour rules, Bey wins – even though it’s the worst song on Cowboy Carter by far. Argue with your 9-year-old niece, not me.
Best Rap Song
Rapsody featuring Hit-Boy, “Asteroids”
Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti, “Carnival”
Future & Metro Boomin Featuring Kendrick Lamar , “Like That”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
GloRilla, “Yeah Glo!”
What should win: “Asteroids“
What will win: “Yeah Glo!”
One again, in terms of writing and performance, Rapsody smashes her peers. But I’m getting strong 2002 India Arie vibes with her nominations, and a win doesn’t feel like it’s in the cards. Instead, it’s a toss-up between Kendrick and Glo. I could see the academy tossing our girl a bone since Kendrick is a lock in other categories. I wouldn’t be against either picking up this trophy, though.
Best R&B Album
Chris Brown, 11:11 (Deluxe)
Lalah Hathaway, Vantablack
Muni Long, Revenge
Lucky Daye, Algorithm
Usher, Coming Home
What should win: Algorithm
What will win: Algorithm
Hey, look, we have four great nominees … and Cousin Chris. This is a pretty tight race. Algorithm is the best album on the list, though Vantablack is a worthy contender as well. Also, Muni and Usher have had strong viral and touring buzz, respectively, so they’re in the conversation as well. It’s anybody’s game but I’ll go with my gut and pick Lucky Daye.
Because as we all know – *deep breath* – LUCKY DAYE DON’T MISS.
Best R&B Performance
Chris Brown, “Residuals”
Coco Jones, “Here We Go (Uh Oh)”
Jhené Aiko, “Guidance”
Muni Long, “Made for Me (Live on BET)”
SZA, “Saturn”
What should win: “Made for Me (Live on BET)”
What will win: “Made for Me (Live on BET)”
Now which one of y’all snuck that Jhené lullaby on the list!? Take those coma chords elsewhere, please. Anyway, if we’re truly judging by performance, this is an easy one – Muni should and likely will win, though I have a sneaking suspicion that SZA could win for some weird reason. These folks nominated that Jhené song so anything is possible.
Best Traditional R&B Performance
Marsha Ambrosius, “Wet”
Kenyon Dixon, “Can I Have This Groove”
Lalah Hathaway Featuring Michael McDonald, “No Lie”
Muni Long, “Make Me Forget”
Lucky Daye, “That’s You”
What should win: “That’s You”
What will win: “No Lie”
This is another tough one. Every song here is great but I’d give Lucky the slight edge in terms of quality. The only reason I think Lalah pulls off the win is because she has the X-factor – a Michael McDonald feature. And we ALL know how much the Grammy loves to award someone who already has a bunch of awards. I’m totally fine if Dr. Hathaway wins though. No bad picks here.
Best Progressive R&B Album
Avery*Sunshine, So Glad to Know You
Durand Bernarr, En Route
Childish Gambino, Bando Stone and the New World
Kehlani, Crash
NxWorries (Anderson .Paak & Knxwledge), Why Lawd?
What should win: Why Lawd?
What will win: Why Lawd?
These R&B categories are tricky. I’m very hype that my guy Durand got the nod for his great EP but, biases aside, NxWorries is the best project here. Avery is nipping at their heels, though. I could see any of the nominees winning (even though I’m side-eyeing those Kehlani and Gambino nods) but I’ll just stick with my guns and go with Paak & Knxwledge.
Album of the Year:
André 3000, New Blue Sun
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Charli XCX, Brat
Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 4
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
What should win: RAPSODY
What will win: Cowboy Carter
RAPSODY’S PLEASE DON’T CRY IS THE BEST ALBUM OF 2024.
Now that that’s out of my system, refer to page 88, paragraph four, of the Beyonce Apology Tour rulebook – she’s winning everything. And I’m OK with that. Cowboy Carter is legitimately the best project among these nominees. Lil’ Brina’s Short n’ Sweet is the most fun record on the list and Hit Me Hard and Soft is quality too, but neither overcome Queen Bey. After the Country Music Awards did Beyonce dirty, I expect the Grammys to come riding in on their own white horse to right those wrongs. It will be Beyonce’s night.
And I’d ask why Andre’s flute album is here, but making sense of the Grammys is like trying to stay awake through a Jhene song. Don’t bother.
Who do you think will get the win these categories? Leave your picks below.
I have to agree with 90 percent of what you said..
Disagree with Record of the year and Best Rap song
Record of the year typically goes to the biggest song of the year (example Lizzo, Bruno, Miley) …. Billie will NOT beat Sabrina in this category..there is no way. If anyone stands a chance against Espresso, it would be Chappell Roan….
Best Rap Song- Glorilla over Kendrick?…. I disagree with the “toss up” thing- This is the Grammy’s, not the BET awards… not only that, but best song goes to the writing as you mentioned, and they won’t give this to anyone else but Kendrick… ALSO they love him over there(in rap categories)
Everything else.. SPOT ON- we shall see!!
The only thing I’ll say to disagree is that Billie’s song peaked higher on the Hot 100 than Espresso, and is on pace to be the most streamed song of the year by the time the grammy’s come around. And they have also been neck and neck on the radio for months. So saying Espresso is bigger than Birds of a Feather isn’t really accurate.
Espresso is catchy but where Sabrina falls flat is the tired schtick of using sex appeal to get attention. I’m sick of them prancing around on stage in bedazzled bathing suits and revealing outfits. It’s old and boring at this point. Billie doesn’t need to do all that and she’s selling out stadiums around the globe. Cowboy Carter just came off as hokie. Beyoncé is so far from looking like she does anything related to riding horses and getting her nails dirty. Her western theme seemed more like her playing dress-up just because of her album.